Seven years ago, half way through my #SpaceNomad adventure waiting for STS-133 to launch, I found myself in a bar in Portland, Oregon.
With me, a good friend – and fellow space fan – James. James and I first met in the Netherlands at a new media conference, cemented a friendship in London, and then a promotion at work saw him heading back to the US to live in California. Home for James though, was Oregon, and here I was, unexpectedly in his town, meeting him for a glass of wine.
As we discussed the ending of the Space Shuttle programme I expressed the view that it would take quite some time for the US to be able to send astronauts back to space on their own hardware, but James was much more optimistic about companies like SpaceX filling the gap that shuttle would leave.
My network seemed to think it would be at least seven years before the US would fly their own astronauts, so I plumped for that as a reasonable estimate. James put his faith in the innovative spirit of Elon Musk and said they’d be flying before that. There was only one thing for it – a bet! (I mean, if it’s good enough for Stephen Hawking…)
I said the US wouldn’t have the capability to put people into space before 1st December 2017, and James took the opposing view. Having shaken on the deal – agreeing that whichever one lost the bet would have to cook the meal of the other’s choice, in the location of their choice (choosing between our two home towns) – I realised that much of my intel had been collected at the start of 2010. Had I made a mistake agreeing to December? It could be a close one! I took solace in the fact that at least I was betting on something that I’d be happy to see happen sooner, so even losing the bet would be positive.
Over the years we’ve sent emails back and forth, taunting each other with leaps in progress, or technical setbacks and delays. Each year my phone has reminded me on this day that the best was still running, but today I realise it’s over – I won!
Other than looking forward to conjuring up a tasty meal for James to cook – and wondering if he’ll really fly me to San Francisco so I can enjoy it! – I don’t feel much joy at having been right. This feels like a bet that I should have lost, and would have been happy to have lost, but space is hard and when it comes to human safety you don’t want to rush things.
I don’t like to think of myself as a cynic, I’m honestly an optimist at heart, but I also have a realistic view not only about what’s possible, but what is “likely” – and the too can sometimes be very different beasts.
Ad astra friends – and James… I’ll be in touch!
I have a new website getting ready to go into beta stage and wanted to see if you were interested in participating. It has to do with space tourism. Let me know if you are interested and I can contact you when it is ready.
[…] This will be the first time since the space shuttle programme ended, that the US has launched astronauts, on a US rocket, from US soil – and that was nine years ago, in 2011. Many in the US have been waiting for this moment for a long time, and felt the gap in US human launch capability, was too long. (In fact in December 2010 I placed a bet with a friend of mine about when the US would next send it’s own astronauts into space post-Shuttle programme… happily/sadly I won!) […]
[…] But what about the options for getting to space? When I started out, the space shuttle was retiring, Soyuz going strong, and I had a bet with a friend about when SpaceX (or any American organisation) would next fly people to space from the US (I won). […]